Market Dashboard - Bullish wave showing signs of weakness

It has been quite some time since my last update!  Things were looking pretty scary when the market decided to make a huge run to the upside.  For the purposes of transparency, I did not expect that and I recommended that people be cautious with the upside trade.  I completely missed out on the move, but that's just the way it goes sometimes. Currently, my RUM Wave indicators are showing that there is a little weakness happening in the market.  It is not really that surprising, considering how far the market has moved!

Market Dashboard - Bounce, but not the end of downdraft


I think Friday's bounce was the start of an intermediate "B" wave, in Elliot Wave terms.  That said, we could see some more upside out of it, but I don't think we are done with Primary Wave IV.  Think 2011 for reference.  

The SPY chart below looks like it is approaching a low point with regard to price volume, so I'm considering that as a potential point of resistance for bulls.

A quick selloff late this trading day continued to confirm EW theory that we are in Primary Wave 4. This means we are likely in a downtrend that will continue to last for a couple months.  Intermediate rallies are a possibility, but they are risky and difficult to predict.  The failure of the market to move into the overbought range of the RUM Wave indicators confirms the EW theory.  Overall, bullish market bets are risky.

Market update-stubborn wave

Apologies for poor posts the last 2 says, my day job had me on some abnormal hours so my schedule is off.  Anyway, I do not feel fully confident in the market.  The macro picture is leaving a lot of question marks in my mind.  My signals are still bullish overall, but they have been in that range for too long without a rally.  That leads me to believe a larger correction is unfolding.

Market Dashboard - Critical Market Point

 After a difficult week, RUM wave indicators reached an extremely bullish condition on Thursday.  Friday gave us a strong bullish rebound, but investors should act with caution trading this market.  Mandatory reading for my loyal followers is this excellent Elliot Wave weekly recap: click here.  

The 4 hour charts for the major indexes (below) show some pretty strong short term bullish signals.  Specifically, there are bullish divergences on all three charts and the IWM (small caps) is at a strong level of support.  If we see the small caps break this level, it could result in a nasty decline in the overall market.




Market Dashboard - A Challenging Signal

Today the market hit the bulls hard as selling pressure violently accelerated.  This appears to be a challenging moment for my indicators.  I've been waiting for this scenario for a while.  My basic philosophy is to monitor Elliot Wave for my long term market signals and to use RUM Wave to identify short to medium term entry points.  Currently, my favorite EW-ers are calling a potential primary wave III top.  To put it in more common terms, a primary wave III top will signal the start of a 2-3 month decline.  Primary wave II took the market down over 20% before it was over; primary IV will likely be similar.  The question everyone has is, are we there yet?  My signals are just about as bullish as they get, so a failure to recover starting tomorrow would have me believe that primary III is complete.  In fact, if we were somewhere else in the Elliot Wave pattern I would be calling this a screaming "buy" point.  Protective orders on any remaining long positions are a worthy option.

Market Dashboard - finding a bottom

RUM Wave indicators took a hard swing back into the green over the last two days and now are very much on the low side of the range.  One thing I have learned is that I have to trust the indicators and the criteria I have assigned them.  Every time I have second guessed what the RUM wave was telling me, I was wrong.  So, I maintain my bullish stance at this point.  A bounce (at a minimum) is well overdue at this point.  I look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings!

Market Dashboard - bullish

Friday we observed a market pullback that was appropriately timed and expected.  RUM wave suggests that there is still a lot of upside potential to this wave so any pullback is likely just a minor ease of buying pressure.  I encourage readers to visit The Elliot Wave Lives On blog (click here.)  You can find a detailed analysis of EW market conditions there.  I find the information there to be quite complimentary to RUM wave indicators.  The short story is that we should continue to see short-medium term upside movement, however there is likely a large correction on the horizon.

Below, the SPY looks to have pulled back to a level of support.  I suspect we will see that be the bottom of this brief pullback.

Below, the small caps show a rocky road on with lots of ups and downs, but we have reached a level of support and the slow stochastic and RSI are at low levels.  This also suggests that we should resume a push to the upside.

Finally, the DIA (below) looks very similar to the SPY with price reaching a mild level of support.


Market Dashboard - Bullish Criteria Met

RUM wave indicators have satisfied my criteria to become officially bullish.  Primary Indicator 1 is in the green, Primary Indicator 2 is crossing in the green, the Very Short Term indicator was in the green a couple days ago and is still on the bullish side of the arc.  Tomorrow we will hear about Scotland's vote and trade around "trader's digestion of FED data."  For me, I plan on taking this opportunity to go long in tripple levereged ETFs.  For more seasoned investors, it is an opportunity to consider bullish option strategies.  




RUM Wave indicators are getting quite close to a reversal point.  Primary 1 is in the green zone and the leading needle of primary 2 is just crossing into the green.  The Very Short Term indicator is solidly in the green.  I'd like to see the Leading Directional Indicator turn bullish with both needles of Primary 2 in the green zone.  That would be a potential recipe for bullish success.  I think it may happen in the next couple days.

Market Dashboard - Indicators marching lower

My market indicators continue to march toward the "green zone" which is a good thing for those that are on the sidelines waiting for the next bullish signal.  I have drawn in a blue line on the IWM chart (below) indicating a possible inverted head and shoulders formation forming.  Those are bullish in nature and would suggest a bullish move in the small caps if it continues to form next week.