Bounce likely, forecast negative

Scores indicate a bounce is probable, but further decline ahead

The daily score on the 4 hour chart is at a low level, indicating a relief bounce is in order.  The market rallied at the end of the day today and it seems reasonable it would continue tomorrow for at least half of the day.  However, a jobs report comes out at 0830 EST and those are always unpredictable.  With no sign of QE from the Fed Minutes today I don't think a "bad" number would entice a rally as it had before on hopes of more QE.  Regardless, the RumWave is still indicating the path of least resistance is downward for the next 10 - 15 days.  I have positioned the UltraWave to take advantage of further declines with a 3x inverse DJIA ETF.


Not a good time to start medium term (10-15 day) bullish positions.

Calculated Daily Scores

DJIA 4 hr Chart
The candlesticks on the 4 hr chart don't show any signs of letting up despite the overall daily calculated score.  However, %B is low and the red line on the slow stochastic is also at oversold levels.  It is worth noting that the purple line on the slow stochastic has room to decline before reaching oversold levels.

DJIA Daily Chart
 The candlesticks on the daily chart also show no signs of letting up.  The red line on the slow stochastic still has significant room to decline.  If the market did turn upward tomorrow, it looks like a bearish divergence would be formed between the lows on the candlesticks and the lows on the RSI.  This would indicate further declines are likely.


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