Unconfirmed bearish trend

Hate to say it, but it doesn't look promising

In today's post, I'll examine a couple leading indicators and chart patterns that are making me lean toward a bearish trend for the next 10-20 trading days.



First leading bearish indicator is the RumWave itself.  It is on the verge of tripping a sell signal on a confirmed downtrend.  I think a down day tomorrow would trigger it.  If we get a little bounce tomorrow, we may stay above the trigger for a little bit longer.  However the next couple charts tell a good story.


The chart above is from http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/3-peaks-and-domed-house-point-down-for-the-s-p-500-128816.  The author points out that this pattern appeared "1893 to 1895, 1910 to 1912, 1946 to 1948, 1964 to 1968 and then 1966 to 1969."   She goes on to count the waves for us and they are eerily similar.  Right now we are at wave 27, and are poised for leg 28 which would be a big big downturn.  I don't like it, but I have to acknowledge how similar the patterns are, and matched with the RumWave's prediction of a downturn it must be taken seriously.



 The 4 hr DJIA chart is showing some decreased downside momentum on the candlesticks, but important to note is that the purple line on the slow stochastic is way high, while the red line is way low.  Combined with the %B metric, this tells me there is potential for further downside.


 The daily chart also shows some room for further decline with the red and purple lines of the slow stochastic about to cross.

Overall, I am looking forward to tomorrow to see if the RumWave confirms the downtrend or if we bounce back up and remain "above the line".  Best of luck to your trading!