Some of my readers will recognize my previous work from the Reversion to the Unified Mean (RUM) Wave blog. I wrote it in relative anonymity for a couple years. That work can now be found here.
Today I decided to close my long positions. The RumWave isn't showing a definite "sell" signal, but there is not a lot of up room and plenty of down room to run. So, I took my 7.5% profit to the bank. Not to shabby for two weeks worth of minimal effort!
One of the big deciding factors for me today was the calculated scores (above). There is just SO much red that I can't keep looking at it without any action. The scores are not the highest I've ever seen, but they are high enough for me. If the market does decide to make another move higher from here it will probably result in a more severe decline on the backside. We'll see what happens, but my investing ship is safe in the harbor just in case that "unexpected" storm shows up. There hasn't been much negative news (or positive news for that matter) from Europe lately..
The 4 hr chart (above) is showing a sideways consolidation move so far. We'll see if it breaks to the downside in the next couple days I think.
The daily chart (above) is displaying what I call the "twisted ribbon" appearance on the candlesticks. Coupled with the Slow Stochastic running at high levels, I have to think that a break to the downside is very likely.
For what its worth, the two best Elliot Wave counters I follow are calling for a continued move higher. A lot of times they are right, but I find that the RumWave usually lead-turns their predictions by a few days. Especially when their wave counts "fail".
All that being said, I'm on the sideline for the next little bit.
GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!