Moving to "Hold" status

Closing the "buying window"

Friday's market action gave us a large pop at the open and then faded throughout the day.  During the last few minutes the market did make a nice move up breaking the downward trajectory and keeping the DJIA in the positive for the day.  I think that is a good sign of bullish interest, however I think the time to buy into this rally has past.  I am now in a "hold" mentality because the 4hr and daily scores are quite high.  

Today's scores:

You can see in the scores above that the daily chart score (top row) and 4 hour chart score (middle row) are in the red.  This is telling me that the market has moved up to levels that are fairly high in relation to their recent past.  That is why I don't want to start new bullish positions.  The combined score total (small standalone row) is still being balanced out by the RumWave chart score.  The picture below shows a compressed view of all of my scores (June '12 to today) for your reference.

In the above chart, note the RumWave score.  It is still really, really low.  Meanwhile, the 4 hour score is relatively high, but not at all-time highs.  Regular readers may remember that I think of the RumWave as a "lie  detector" for the market.  Right now, it looks like the truth data is leaning toward the bullish side.

 Above is a 4 hour chart of the DJIA.  I find two things interesting.  First, the slow stochastic red line is at very high levels.  Second, the MACD is showing a bullish crossover (small red circle) and is starting to print green bars.  This seems to indicate that the slow stochastic may ride at these higher levels for a little while as the MACD continues on a positive slope.

 Finally, above is a DJIA daily chart.  There isn't much that I find particularly remarkable about it.  All of the oscillators are at mid range and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover.

Ultimately, all of this data leads me to believe that there is still more upside to this rally, but I don't think the market is set up to explode to the upside.   More likely, it will be some kind of a "melt up" type move with small ups and small downs along the way.

TSP GAMEPLAN:  No change.  75% C fund, 25% S fund.


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