Some of my readers will recognize my previous work from the Reversion to the Unified Mean (RUM) Wave blog. I wrote it in relative anonymity for a couple years. That work can now be found here.
On Friday the market bounced off a level of RumWave resistance I had mentioned Thursday. I was able to get out of my small cap "gamble" with a tiny profit. The charts were starting to look a little better last week, but Friday's action made me think that bulls and bears are all nervous. Bears are nervous about QE3 and the old saying "don't fight the Fed" while the bulls are nervous about election results and the Fiscal Cliff. Regarding the election, I think it is a lose-lose situation for equity markets. If Romney wins, the market will flip out over his intent to fire Ben Bernanke, thus taking away the "punch bowl" that has kept this party going. If Obama wins, the market could flip out because, well, it's Obama and he's seemingly declared a war on big business (this was a statement by the CEO of JP Morgan in a press conference I happened to be listening to.)
Moreover, the long term charts just look toppy. We'll see what happens this week!
The bottom line: not a time to buy from the RumWave perspective. Short term gambles are just that.
TSP: G Fund.
Questions, comments? Email me: email@example.com
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK!