Some of my readers will recognize my previous work from the Reversion to the Unified Mean (RUM) Wave blog. I wrote it in relative anonymity for a couple years. That work can now be found here.
Today was another rough day for the bulls. I just happened to be watching the market at 1330 EST when the drop off really took hold. Interestingly, there was no apparent breaking news event that sparked the whole thing.. just a big whoosh that left commentators scrambling to fill the story. I was comfortable with the knowledge that it was probably some fashion of the Elliot Wave "C" wave. I posted the picture below a few days ago when we were at the A-B transition. The B wave took shape, and now I believe we are somewhere in the C wave. Question is, when will it end? There are lots of advanced formations that the C wave could take on, but ultimately I'm reliant on RUM wave analysis to determine the next entry point. Today we see Primary Indicator #2 reversing course with the black needle leading the grey needle. This is moderately bullish. My concern is that the Leading Directional Indicator is still bearish. Also, the C leg often approximates the size of the A leg. The target for this would be in the neighborhood of 1875 to 1880 on the SPX. The time geometry of it (if it turns out to be parallel to the A wave) would have us rebounding midday on 6 Aug.